Dallas Mavericks vs Denver Nugggets AI Prediction (Jan 14) | HappySports AI

Our NBA AI model breaks down PDallas Mavericks vs Denver Nugggets with projected lines, win probabilities, and today’s best bets.

Dallas Mavericks vs Denver Nugggets AI Prediction (Jan 14) | HappySports AI

AI Probability Preview — today’s model‑powered signals for mispriced NBA lines and totals.

Happy Sports AI Analysis · NBA
Dallas Mavericks vs Denver Nugggets
January 12, 2026 · 21:30 · American Airline Center · Odds: Pinnacle Sports
Home: Dallas Mavericks
Overall: 15-25
Home: 11-10
Road: Denver Nugggets
Overall: 27-13
Road: 16-7
Line Comparison
Happy Sports AI
Dallas Mavericks: 106.5 (-7.5)
U/O: 216.8 (-10.2)
Denver Nugggets: 107.9 (-5.1)
Pinnacle
Dallas Mavericks 114.0
Total 227.0
Denver Nugggets 113.0
Happy Sports AI Win Probabilities
Moneyline Win Probability
Dallas Mavericks (1.98)
Denver Nugggets (1.91)
46.7% (-2.4%)
53.3% (+2.4%)
Book implied: 49.1% vs 50.9%
Spread -1.0 (Dallas Mavericks side)
Dallas Mavericks ATS cover (2.00)
Denver Nugggets ATS cover (1.89)
44.3% (-4.3%)
55.7% (+4.3%)
Book implied: 48.6% vs 51.4%
Total 227.0
Under (1.93)
Over (1.93)
69.9% (+19.9%)
30.1% (-19.9%)
Book implied: 50.0% vs 50.0%

MyBookie NBA Odds · Dallas Mavericks vs Denver Nugggets

Live odds from MyBookie. Use these prices to follow the same AI edges shown in today’s Smart Money Report.
Money Line
Dallas Mavericks
-109
Reference price (no current edge)
Denver Nugggets (AI Pick)
-112
AI value side at MyBookie
Point Spread
Dallas Mavericks
-110
Line: +1 · for comparison
Denver Nugggets (AI Pick)
-110
Line: -1 · AI sees a positive EV margin here
Total
Over 226½
-110
Full game total · opposite side
Under 226½ (AI Pick)
-110
Full game total · AI prefers this side at this number
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Happy Sports Betting Data
Spread · Season / Last 7
Dallas Mavericks
Season 18-22
Last 7 2-5
Denver Nugggets
Season 24-16
Last 7 5-2
Totals · Season / Last 7
Dallas Mavericks
Season U23-O17
Last 7 U6-O1
Denver Nugggets
Season U14-O26
Last 7 U4-O3
Spread · Home / Road · Last 5
Dallas Mavericks (Home)
Overall 12-9
Last 5 4-1
Denver Nugggets (Road)
Overall 14-9
Last 5 3-2
Totals · Home / Road · Last 5
Dallas Mavericks (Home)
Overall U13-O8
Last 5 U4-O1
Denver Nugggets (Road)
Overall U8-O15
Last 5 U2-O2

Odds from Pinnacle Sports. Probabilities are generated by the Happy Sports AI model using team form and efficiency metrics.

Pinnacle NBA Odds · Dallas Mavericks vs Denver Nugggets
For European & Asian residents only. Live odds directly from Pinnacle.
Powered by HappySports AI
Moneyline · AI edge
Denver Nugggets (AI Pick)
Reference price vs market
1.91
Flagged as value at Pinnacle
Spread · AI edge
Denver Nugggets +1
Line vs AI fair spread
1.89
AI prefers this side at this number
Total · AI edge
Under 227
Total vs AI projected points
1.93
Positive EV based on our model
Use Pinnacle odds that our NBA model is calibrated on for moneyline, spread and totals.
P Bet these odds at Pinnacle
Available to eligible European & Asian residents. Please bet responsibly.

Happy Sports AI - Match Prediction Report

This matchup is another strong under opportunity, while the side leans slightly toward Denver but without a huge edge compared to the total.​

Game Context & Key Factors

  • Dallas is 15–25 (11–10 at home) with a recent stretch of low‑tempo, low‑scoring games: 6 unders and 1 over in its last seven overall, and 4 unders in its last five home contests.​
  • Denver is 27–13 (16–7 on the road), playing solid basketball and leading a three‑game road winning streak, but even they have trended toward slightly lower totals recently compared to earlier in the season.​

Happy Sports AI vs Book Lines

  • Side: The book lists Mavericks –1.0 with very tight moneyline pricing on both sides.​
    • Happy Sports AI win probabilities: Nuggets 53.3% vs Mavericks 46.7%, a modest lean to Denver compared with the book’s near 50/50 view.​
    • ATS at Mavericks –1.0 (effectively Nuggets +1): AI shows Nuggets covering 55.7% vs book implied ~51.4%, giving around +4 percentage points of edge on Denver against the spread.​
  • Total: The book total is 227.0, while Happy Sports AI projects just 216.8.​
    • AI under probability: 69.9% vs book implied 50.0%, implying roughly +20 percentage points of edge on the under and making the total the primary value angle.​

Style, Matchup, and Market View

  • Dallas’ last 7 games: 6 unders, 1 over; last 5 home games: 4 unders, 1 over, with combined scores generally sitting in the low‑220s rather than near 230.​
  • Several external previews and models still project scores around Nuggets 118–120, Mavericks 112–115 (230ish), but a number of analytical sites explicitly list under 226.5/227.0 as their preferred total play due to Dallas’ recent offensive struggles and defensive uptick.​

Happy Sports AI Picks (Dallas–Denver)

  • Under 227.0
  • Small lean: Denver Nuggets ATS (effectively +1 or –1 depending on market)

The under is the clear value position here, backed by both Happy Sports AI and multiple external models, while Denver’s side edge is present but modest compared to the strength of the total.

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