Golden State Warriors vs Portland Trail Blazers (Jan 13) | HappySports AI
Our NBA AI model breaks down Golden State Warriors vs Portland Trail Blazers with projected lines, win probabilities, and today’s best bets.
AI Probability Preview — today’s model‑powered signals for mispriced NBA lines and totals.
Happy Sports AI Analysis · NBA
Golden State Warriors vs Portland Trail Blazers
January 13, 2026 · 23:00 · Chase Center · Odds: Pinnacle Sports
Home: Golden State Warriors
Overall: 21-19
Home: 13-6
Road: Portland Trail Blazers
Overall: 18-21
Road: 7-11
Line Comparison
Happy Sports AI
Golden State Warriors: 114.7 (-2.3)
U/O: 224.6 (+0.1)
Portland Trail Blazers: 107.3 (-0.2)
Pinnacle
Golden State Warriors 117.0
Total 224.5
Portland Trail Blazers 107.5
Happy Sports AI Win Probabilities
Moneyline Win Probability
Golden State Warriors (1.24)
Portland Trail Blazers (4.36)
Book implied: 77.9% vs 22.1%
Spread -9.5 (Golden State Warriors side)
Golden State Warriors ATS cover (1.94)
Portland Trail Blazers ATS cover (1.94)
Book implied: 50.0% vs 50.0%
Total 224.5
Under (1.85)
Over (2.01)
Book implied: 52.0% vs 48.0%
MyBookie NBA Odds · Golden State Warriors vs Portland Trail Blazers
Live odds from MyBookie. Use these prices to follow the same AI edges shown in today’s Smart Money Report.
Money Line
Portland Trail Blazers
+337
Reference price (no current edge)
Golden State Warriors (AI Pick)
-455
AI value side at MyBookie
Point Spread
Golden State Warriors
-110
Line: -10.5 · for comparison
Portland Trail Blazers (AI Pick)
-110
Line: +10.5 · AI sees a positive EV margin here
Total
Under 224
-110
Full game total · opposite side
Over 224 (AI Pick)
-110
Full game total · AI prefers this side at this number
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Happy Sports Betting Data
Spread · Season / Last 7
Golden State Warriors
Season 21-19
Last 7 4-3
Portland Trail Blazers
Season 21-18
Last 7 5-2
Totals · Season / Last 7
Golden State Warriors
Season U19-O21
Last 7 U4-O3
Portland Trail Blazers
Season U18-O21
Last 7 U5-O2
Spread · Home / Road · Last 5
Golden State Warriors (Home)
Overall 11-8
Last 5 2-3
Portland Trail Blazers (Road)
Overall 10-8
Last 5 2-3
Totals · Home / Road · Last 5
Golden State Warriors (Home)
Overall U9-O10
Last 5 U3-O2
Portland Trail Blazers (Road)
Overall U8-O10
Last 5 U4-O4
Odds from Pinnacle Sports. Probabilities are generated by the Happy Sports AI model using team form and efficiency metrics.
Pinnacle NBA Odds · Golden State Warriors vs Portland Trail Blazers
For European & Asian residents only. Live odds directly from Pinnacle.
Powered by HappySports AI
Moneyline · AI edge
Golden State Warriors (AI Pick)
Reference price vs market
1.24
Flagged as value at Pinnacle
Spread · AI edge
Portland Trail Blazers +9.5
Line vs AI fair spread
1.94
AI prefers this side at this number
Total · AI edge
Over 224.5
Total vs AI projected points
2.01
Positive EV based on our model
Use Pinnacle odds that our NBA model is calibrated on for moneyline, spread and totals.
P
Bet these odds at Pinnacle
Available to eligible European & Asian residents. Please bet responsibly.
Happy Sports AI - Match Prediction Report
This matchup is a moderate edge on Blazers +9.5 with a fairly efficient total at Pinnacle numbers.
Matchup & Form Overview
- Golden State sits at 21–19 (13–6 home), but their ATS profile is only marginally positive (21–19 ATS) and just 2–3 ATS in their last 5 at Chase Center, so they haven’t consistently justified big home spreads.
- Portland is 18–21 (7–11 road) yet 21–18 ATS overall and 5–2 ATS over the last 7, including multiple wins and covers against the Warriors this season, highlighting a favorable matchup trend.
- Even with Avdija out, the Blazers have maintained competitiveness against the number, especially as underdogs in this range.
Line Comparison (Happy AI vs Pinnacle)
- Pinnacle numbers imply about 117.0–107.5 team totals and 224.5 combined, with GS a strong favorite both SU and ATS.
- Happy Sports AI projects 114.7–107.3 and 224.6 total – almost identical to the bookmaker total, but lower GS scoring and a slightly tighter margin than the spread suggests.
- Moneyline: Book implies 77.9% GS vs 22.1% POR, while AI has 64.1% vs 35.9%. GS is still the rightful favorite, but significantly less dominant than Pinnacle pricing indicates.
Spread & Total Angles
- Spread -9.5: AI gives Warriors 46.0% cover probability vs 54.0% for Blazers, a modest but real edge to Portland +9.5, compared to Pinnacle’s 50/50 pricing.
- The gap (around +4% toward Portland) is not as large as in other games on this slate but still pushes the Blazers into value-dog territory, especially given recent H2H results where Portland has beaten GS three straight times.
- Total 224.5: AI splits 49.9% Under vs 50.1% Over with a model total at 224.6, essentially identical to the market line – no exploitable edge on the full-game total.
Recent Performance & Situational Data
- ATS last 7: Warriors 4–3, Blazers 5–2 – both positive, but Portland slightly better vs market expectations.
- Home/Road last 5 ATS: GS home 2–3, POR road 2–3 – neutral, supporting the idea that pricing, not venue, is the main driver here.
- Totals last 7: GS U4–O3, POR U5–O2; Blazers have leaned more Under recently, and their last 5 road games are 4–1 to the Under, which fits a slightly slower, grindier road profile even if the model sees the total as fairly set.
Betting Takeaways (Pinnacle Version)
- Side: Portland Trail Blazers +9.5 is a reasonable value play – AI shows a small but meaningful edge to the dog in a spot where the market still prices GS as a heavy home favorite.
- Total: With model and line both at ~224.5, full-game total is a pass from an edge perspective; any total action should be small and based on narrative (e.g., live if pace deviates), not pre-game model value.
- Strategic use: Compared to Denver–NOP or LAL–ATL, this is a secondary-tier edge – suitable as an “aggressive” or supplementary pick (Blazers +9.5), not a flagship main pick.
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