Predictions

Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder AI Prediction (Jan 9) | HappySports AI

Our NBA AI model breaks down Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder with projected lines, win probabilities, and today’s best bets.

AI Probability Preview — today’s model‑powered signals for mispriced NBA lines and totals.

Happy Sports AI Analysis · NBA

Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder

January 09, 2026 · 20:00 · FedExForum · Odds: Pinnacle Sports

Home: Memphis Grizzlies

Overall: 15-21

Home: 7-10

Road: Oklahoma City Thunder

Overall: 31-7

Road: 13-4

Line Comparison

Happy Sports AI

Memphis Grizzlies: 109.0 (-3.3)

U/O: 227.1 (-1.9)

Oklahoma City Thunder: 112.9 (-3.9)

Pinnacle

Memphis Grizzlies 112.3

Total 229.0

Oklahoma City Thunder 116.8

Happy Sports AI Win Probabilities

Moneyline Win Probability

Memphis Grizzlies (2.61)

Oklahoma City Thunder (1.54)

43.1% (+5.9%)

56.9% (-5.9%)

Book implied: 37.2% vs 62.8%

Spread 4.5 (Memphis Grizzlies side)

Memphis Grizzlies ATS cover (1.96)

Oklahoma City Thunder ATS cover (1.93)

51.1% (+1.5%)

48.9% (-1.5%)

Book implied: 49.5% vs 50.5%

Total 229.0

Under (1.93)

Over (1.94)

54.6% (+4.3%)

45.4% (-4.3%)

Book implied: 50.2% vs 49.8%

MyBookie NBA Odds · Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder

Live odds from MyBookie. Use these prices to follow the same AI edges shown in today’s Smart Money Report.

Money Line

Memphis Grizzlies

+155

Reference price (no current edge)

Oklahoma City Thunder (AI Pick)

-192

AI value side at MyBookie

Point Spread

Oklahoma City Thunder

-110

Line: -4.5 · for comparison

Memphis Grizzlies (AI Pick)

-110

Line: +4.5 · AI sees a positive EV margin here

Total

Over 229

-110

Full game total · opposite side

Under 229 (AI Pick)

-110

Full game total · AI prefers this side at this number

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Happy Sports Betting Data

Spread · Season / Last 7

Memphis Grizzlies

Season 17-19

Last 7 3-4

Oklahoma City Thunder

Season 18-20

Last 7 3-4

Totals · Season / Last 7

Memphis Grizzlies

Season U24-O12

Last 7 U4-O3

Oklahoma City Thunder

Season U19-O19

Last 7 U4-O3

Spread · Home / Road · Last 5

Memphis Grizzlies (Home)

Overall 7-10

Last 5 2-3

Oklahoma City Thunder (Road)

Overall 8-9

Last 5 3-2

Totals · Home / Road · Last 5

Memphis Grizzlies (Home)

Overall U11-O6

Last 5 U2-O3

Oklahoma City Thunder (Road)

Overall U8-O9

Last 5 U4-O4

Odds from Pinnacle Sports. Probabilities are generated by the Happy Sports AI model using team form and efficiency metrics.

Pinnacle NBA Odds · Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder

For European & Asian residents only. Live odds directly from Pinnacle.

Moneyline · AI edge

Oklahoma City Thunder (AI Pick)

Reference price vs market

1.54

Flagged as value at Pinnacle

Spread · AI edge

Memphis Grizzlies +4.5

Line vs AI fair spread

1.96

AI prefers this side at this number

Total · AI edge

Under 229

Total vs AI projected points

1.93

Positive EV based on our model

Use Pinnacle odds that our NBA model is calibrated on for moneyline, spread and totals.

P Bet these odds at Pinnacle

Available to eligible European & Asian residents. Please bet responsibly.

Happy Sports AI - Match Prediction Report

Date: January 9, 2026 | Tip-off: 8:00 PM ET
Venue: FedExForum, Memphis, TN

📊 HappySports AI vs Pinnacle Market Comparison

Projected Score (HappySports AI):

Memphis Grizzlies: 109.0
Oklahoma City Thunder: 112.9
Total: 227.1 (Pinnacle line: 229.0)

Key Market Gaps:

Memphis expected score: -3.3 points below Pinnacle team total (112.3)
OKC expected score: -3.9 points below Pinnacle team total (116.8)
Total points: -1.9 points below Pinnacle O/U line (229)

💰 MONEYLINE (ML) ANALYSIS

Team	Odds	Market Prob	HappySports AI Prob	Edge
Memphis	2.61	37.2%	43.1%	+5.9%
OKC	1.543	62.8%	56.9%	-5.9%

Smart Money Insight:
The market is overvaluing OKC's road dominance (13-4 away record) despite missing two rotation players. HappySports AI projects Memphis has a 6% better chance to win than Pinnacle odds suggest, creating positive expected value on MEM ML @ 2.61.

📉 SPREAD ANALYSIS

Pinnacle Line: Memphis +4.5
Odds: MEM +4.5 @ 1.96 | OKC -4.5 @ 1.925

Side	Market Prob	HappySports AI Prob	Edge
Memphis +4.5	49.5%	51.1%	+1.6%
OKC -4.5	50.5%	48.9%	-1.6%

Smart Money Insight:
The +4.5 spread slightly favors Memphis covering, with AI suggesting the road favorite is overextended. OKC's 10-game win streak vs Memphis factors heavily into public perception, but Holmgren/Wallace absences reduce their rim protection advantage.

🎯 TOTAL (OVER/UNDER) ANALYSIS

Pinnacle Line: 229.0
Odds: Under @ 1.93 | Over @ 1.943

Side	Market Prob	HappySports AI Prob	Edge
Under 229	50.2%	54.6%	+4.4%
Over 229	49.8%	45.4%	-4.4%

HappySports AI Projected Total: 221.9 points
Gap vs Market: -1.9 points

Smart Money Insight:
This is the strongest value signal in the matchup. Both teams are missing primary scorers:

Memphis without Ja Morant (28.4 PPG impact on offense)
OKC without Chet Holmgren (18.2 PPG, elite rim finishing)

AI projects a slower-paced, half-court battle with both teams struggling to generate efficient offense. The Under 229 carries +4.4% expected value.

🔍 KEY FACTORS DRIVING VALUE

Memphis Injury Report:

Ja Morant (OUT) – Primary ball handler and clutch scorer absent for 3rd straight game
Vince Williams Jr. (50% GTD) – Rotation versatility in question
Jaren Jackson Jr. / Santi Aldama must carry frontcourt load

OKC Injury Report:

Chet Holmgren (OUT) – Elite rim protector and secondary scorer missing
Cason Wallace (OUT) – Perimeter defense depth compromised

Head-to-Head Trends:

OKC has won 10 straight vs Memphis (since Dec 30, 2024)
This season: 114-100 (OKC road W), 119-103 (OKC home W)
Memphis at home: 7-10 record, struggling without Morant

Recent Form:

Memphis: 1-6 in last 7 games (5-game skid, 1 win, then loss to PHX)
OKC: 4-2 in last 6 (3W streak → 2L → OT win vs UTA)

💡 SHARP BETTING ANGLES

PRIMARY VALUE: Under 229 (-110 @ Pinnacle)

HappySports AI projects 221.9 total points
Edge: +4.4% probability advantage
Both teams missing primary offensive engines
Memphis averaging 106 PPG at home in last 5 games without Morant
OKC's pace slows without Holmgren's transition finishing

SECONDARY VALUE: Memphis +4.5 (-104 @ Pinnacle)

Edge: +1.6% probability advantage
Market overreacting to OKC's 10-game streak vs MEM
Holmgren absence reduces OKC's ability to dominate paint
Memphis frontcourt (JJJ/Aldama) can exploit OKC's thin interior

CONTRARIAN PLAY: Memphis ML @ 2.61

Edge: +5.9% probability advantage
High-risk, high-reward play if Memphis covers + wins outright
Requires Memphis to execute in half-court and control rebounding

📌 FINAL VERDICT

HappySports AI Consensus:
✅ Best Bet: Under 229 @ 1.93 (Pinnacle)
✅ Value Play: Memphis +4.5 @ 1.96 (Pinnacle)
⚠️ Contrarian Dart: Memphis ML @ 2.61 (small unit)

Confidence Level: 🔥🔥🔥🔥 (4/5) on Under | 🔥🔥🔥 (3/5) on MEM +4.5

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Always bet responsibly and within your means.

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