Memphis Grizzlies vs Phoenix Suns AI Prediction (Jan 7) | HappySports AI

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Happy Sports AI Analysis · NBA

Memphis Grizzlies vs Phoenix Suns

January 07, 2026 · 20:00 · FedExForum · Odds: Pinnacle Sports

Home: Memphis Grizzlies

Overall: 15-20

Home: 7-9

Road: Phoenix Suns

Overall: 21-15

Road: 9-10

Line Comparison

Happy Sports AI

Memphis Grizzlies: 109.3 (-3.7)

U/O: 225.3 (-5.2)

Phoenix Suns: 115.0 (-2.5)

Pinnacle

Memphis Grizzlies 113.0

Total 230.5

Phoenix Suns 117.5

Happy Sports AI Win Probabilities

Moneyline Win Probability

Memphis Grizzlies (2.65)

Phoenix Suns (1.53)

39.1% (+2.5%)

60.9% (-2.5%)

Book implied: 36.6% vs 63.4%

Spread 4.5 (Memphis Grizzlies side)

Memphis Grizzlies ATS cover (1.95)

Phoenix Suns ATS cover (1.93)

47.6% (-2.2%)

52.4% (+2.2%)

Book implied: 49.8% vs 50.2%

Total 230.5

Under (1.93)

Over (1.93)

61.6% (+11.6%)

38.4% (-11.6%)

Book implied: 50.0% vs 50.0%

MyBookie NBA Odds · Memphis Grizzlies vs Phoenix Suns

Live odds from MyBookie. Use these prices to follow the same AI edges shown in today’s Smart Money Report.

Money Line

Memphis Grizzlies

+151

Reference price (no current edge)

Phoenix Suns (AI Pick)

-185

AI value side at MyBookie

Point Spread

Memphis Grizzlies

-110

Line: +4.5 · for comparison

Phoenix Suns (AI Pick)

-110

Line: -4.5 · AI sees a positive EV margin here

Total

Over 232½

-110

Full game total · opposite side

Under 232½ (AI Pick)

-110

Full game total · AI prefers this side at this number

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Happy Sports Betting Data

Spread · Season / Last 7

Memphis Grizzlies

Season 17-18

Last 7 4-3

Phoenix Suns

Season 26-10

Last 7 6-1

Totals · Season / Last 7

Memphis Grizzlies

Season U23-O12

Last 7 U3-O4

Phoenix Suns

Season U21-O15

Last 7 U5-O2

Spread · Home / Road · Last 5

Memphis Grizzlies (Home)

Overall 7-9

Last 5 2-3

Phoenix Suns (Road)

Overall 12-7

Last 5 3-2

Totals · Home / Road · Last 5

Memphis Grizzlies (Home)

Overall U10-O6

Last 5 U1-O4

Phoenix Suns (Road)

Overall U11-O8

Last 5 U4-O4

Odds from Pinnacle Sports. Probabilities are generated by the Happy Sports AI model using team form and efficiency metrics.

Match Prediction Report

1. Game Context & Conference Standing

• Game information
  • Matchup: Memphis Grizzlies vs. Phoenix Suns.
  • Venue: FedExForum (Memphis home).
  • Head-to-head this season: October 29, Memphis won 114–113 on the road.
• Western Conference standings (as of January 7)
  • Memphis Grizzlies: 15–20 overall, 10th in the West, mid-to-lower Western Conference team.
  • Phoenix Suns: 21–15 overall, 7th in the West, playoff-tier Western Conference team.

Memphis sits just outside the play-in race in the lower half of the West, while Phoenix is comfortably in playoff position in the middle tier.

2. Recent Form & Momentum

• Recent streak
  • Memphis: won today's home game against San Antonio in a comeback victory, ending a 4-game losing streak. Playing at home again in consecutive games (not back-to-back, but consecutive home games).
  • Phoenix: 2-game winning streak snapped by a buzzer-beater loss to Houston, potentially carrying psychological weight.
• Head-to-head & matchup history
  • Memphis has won 6 straight games against Phoenix (from January 8, 2024 to present), showing overwhelming dominance in this specific matchup.

→ Form and momentum are mixed: Memphis just broke a 4-game skid, while Phoenix just lost a close game. But the head-to-head history heavily favors Memphis.

3. Status

• Memphis
  • Won today's game against San Antonio, suggesting clean health and rising confidence. Playing consecutive home games with no travel fatigue.
• Phoenix
  • Coming off a buzzer-beater loss to Houston, which could create psychological pressure, but no major injury flags noted.

4. Pinnacle Line & Happy Sports AI Simulation

• Pinnacle moneyline
  • Memphis: approximately 2.65 (implied probability ~36.6%).
  • Phoenix: approximately 1.531 (implied probability ~63.4%).
  • Pinnacle prices Phoenix as a clear road favorite, reflecting their superior season record.
• Happy Sports AI win probabilities
  • Memphis: approximately 39.1%.
  • Phoenix: approximately 60.9%.
  • The model also favors Phoenix but gives Memphis slightly higher odds than Pinnacle does.

→ On the moneyline, there is roughly a +2.5 percentage point edge in Memphis' favor according to the model, a modest disagreement.

• Pinnacle spread
  • Memphis as a home underdog at approximately +4.5 points, with odds near 1.952 / 1.934 (essentially 50/50 from the bookmaker's perspective).
  • Happy Sports AI: Memphis cover ~47.6%, Phoenix cover ~52.4%.
  • The model sees this spread as nearly neutral, with only a slight edge to Phoenix covering.
• Pinnacle total (Over/Under)
  • Market line: 230.5 points.
  • Happy Sports AI projection: 225.3 points (approximately -5.2 points lower).
  • Under probability ~61.6%, Over ~38.4%, making the Under side a clear model lean.

5. Matchup Dynamics & Structural View

• Talent & health gap
  • Phoenix is the stronger team on paper and sits higher in the standings, but they are coming off a tough buzzer-beater loss.
  • Memphis is the weaker season-long team but just won today, is playing at home with no travel, and has won 6 straight against Phoenix.
• Pace & scoring environment
  • Memphis' recent pace (105.1 possessions per game over last 7) is elevated, but the head-to-head history suggests these games tend to stay close and lower-scoring.
  • Phoenix's offense is efficient, but Memphis' defensive adjustments in this specific matchup have historically limited scoring.
• Historical context
  • Memphis' 6-game winning streak against Phoenix (dating back to January 2024) is a strong indicator that this matchup favors the home team regardless of season-long standings.
  • The most recent meeting (114–113) was a tight, low-scoring affair, consistent with the Under lean.

→ Structurally, this sets up as "road favorite with better record vs. home underdog with dominant head-to-head history," where the market may be underpricing Memphis' matchup edge.

6. Pinnacle vs. Happy Sports AI View

• Moneyline
  • Pinnacle: Memphis 36.6%, Phoenix 63.4%.
  • Happy Sports AI: Memphis 39.1%, Phoenix 60.9%.
  • Interpretation: both the market and model favor Phoenix, but the model gives Memphis slightly better odds, suggesting a small value edge on Memphis ML but not a major opportunity.
• Spread
  • Pinnacle: Memphis +4.5, effectively 50/50 from the bookmaker's perspective.
  • Happy Sports AI: Memphis cover 47.6% vs. Phoenix 52.4%.
  • Interpretation: the model sees this spread as nearly neutral, with only a slight lean to Phoenix covering, making the spread not a primary value zone in either direction.
• Total
  • Pinnacle: 230.5 points, near 50/50 on Under vs. Over.
  • Happy Sports AI: 225.3 points, Under 61.6%, Over 38.4%.
  • Interpretation: the model projects significantly lower scoring driven by Memphis' defensive strength in this matchup and the historical pattern of close, lower-scoring games, making Under 230.5 the clearest total value zone in this game.

7. Key Takeaways (Pinnacle Version, Pre-Smart Money Analysis)

• Conference & form context
  • Memphis: 15–20, West 10th seed, just ended 4-game losing streak with a home win today, playing consecutive home games.
  • Phoenix: 21–15, West 7th seed, just lost a close game on a buzzer-beater, potentially carrying mental baggage.
• Matchup history
  • Memphis has won 6 straight against Phoenix dating back to January 2024, including the most recent 114–113 road win, establishing clear matchup dominance regardless of season-long standings.
• Line structure
  • Moneyline: Pinnacle favors Phoenix at 63.4%, model agrees but gives Memphis a slight +2.5pp edge, suggesting Memphis ML has modest value but is not the primary play.
  • Spread: Memphis +4.5 is nearly neutral from both market and model perspectives, making it a low-priority side zone.
  • Total: 230.5 sits well above model projection of 225.3, giving Under 230.5 strong model support at 61.6% probability, the primary value zone driven by matchup history and defensive patterns.

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