Pinnacle has Atlanta as the clear favorite, but our numbers flip this into essentially a fair fight: Charlotte’s win probability climbs to the low-50s while the market still prices them in the mid-30s, and +spread cover lands in the low-60% range. With both offenses still projected near the posted total, the cleaner edge is on the underdog side rather than the total here.

The book is still hanging a solid Knicks favorite off their Cup win, yet HappySports AI cuts both team totals by around 5 points and pulls the combined number meaningfully below the Pinnacle total. That leaves only a mild edge to New York on the spread but a much stronger lean to the under, as short rest and a long questionable list should drag pace and efficiency down.​

Pinnacle continues to respect Miami as the better team, but our simulation sees a completely different game: Brooklyn takes roughly three-quarters of outcomes, with the Heat’s projected scoring falling almost 20 points below the book’s implied baseline under this injury profile. That creates simultaneous value on the Nets moneyline and spread, with the total also grading as several points too high once Miami’s depleted offense is correctly priced.​

On Pinnacle numbers, Milwaukee still carries favorite status, yet our model is far less optimistic about the Bucks’ current form, nudging win probability only a little above coin-flip while leaving Toronto far more live than the price suggests. The bigger disagreement is on the total, which we project several points lower than the market, making the under the preferred way to express any opinion here.​

This matchup is one of the sharpest splits of the day: Pinnacle lines up behind Houston as a strong home favorite with a very high total, while HappySports AI moves the spread back toward New Orleans and pushes the total even higher. The combination of a mispriced underdog and an inflated but still too-low number turns the Pelicans side and the over into clear “smart money” candidates.​

Pinnacle hangs a massive Thunder spread on the back of season-long metrics, but our engine accounts for Cup fatigue on OKC and the Clippers’ structural changes without Harden, trimming OKC’s true cover probability down near fair. With our total also a few points below the posted number, the only meaningful lean is to the under; sides look more like noise than edge.​

The market still prices San Antonio as a blowout favorite with a double-digit line and overwhelming moneyline, yet our simulations see a much more competitive game, slashing Spurs’ true win odds and pushing Washington’s cover rate well above 55%. Total sits very close to Pinnacle’s number, so the clearest angle is simply that the dog is being stretched too far after the Cup run.​

Despite a strong Dallas brand and questionable tags on multiple Mavs starters, Pinnacle continues to lean toward the visitor, while our model narrows the gap and gives Detroit a real chance to win outright at underdog prices. At the same time, both teams’ offensive profiles support a slightly higher total than the book, nudging this into a modest over and live-dog situation rather than a comfortable chalk spot.​

Pinnacle shows a tight spread in favor of Golden State with a mid-230s total, but HappySports AI grades the Warriors as meaningfully stronger and the overall pace/efficiency environment as more modest than the line implies. That pushes GSW’s edge against the number up while turning the total into an under candidate, particularly if Phoenix remains shorthanded on the perimeter.​

Market pricing treats Denver as a heavy road favorite in a shootout, yet our numbers trim their true win probability and show Orlando much more dangerous, especially at home. The total remains high on both sides, with only a marginal tilt toward the over, which means the spread—specifically Magic plus points—houses the more meaningful discrepancy.​

Pinnacle still leans heavily to the Lakers with a huge total, but HappySports AI, factoring in LA’s core injuries and Utah’s offensive ceiling when even partially healthy, cuts both the spread edge and the total. That leaves the Jazz as a playable underdog against the number, while the total looks closer to fair with only a very light lean to the under.​

Books continue to treat Sacramento as a strong favorite with a lofty total despite multiple absences, whereas our projection downgrades the Kings and pulls both teams’ scoring back toward a slightly lower combined number. The result is a favorite that is somewhat overpriced on the moneyline but roughly fair against the spread, with the total offering the only small edge via a modest bias to the under.