Oklahoma City vs San Antonio Spurs AI Prediction (Jan 13) | HappySports AI
Our NBA AI model breaks down Oklahoma City vs San Antonio Spurs with projected lines, win probabilities, and today’s best bets.
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“Early sharp activity is triggering a reverse-line signal flag in this match up!!
Happy Sports AI Analysis · NBA
Oklahoma City vs San Antonio Spurs
January 13, 2026 · 20:00 · Paycom Center · Odds: Pinnacle Sports
Home: Oklahoma City
Overall: 33-7
Home: 19-3
Road: San Antonio Spurs
Overall: 27-12
Road: 14-8
Line Comparison
Happy Sports AI
Oklahoma City: 106.5 (-11.8)
U/O: 213.6 (-14.9)
San Antonio Spurs: 107.1 (-3.2)
Pinnacle
Oklahoma City 118.3
Total 228.5
San Antonio Spurs 110.3
Happy Sports AI Win Probabilities
Moneyline Win Probability
Oklahoma City (1.38)
San Antonio Spurs (3.24)
Book implied: 70.2% vs 29.8%
Spread -8.0 (Oklahoma City side)
Oklahoma City ATS cover (2.02)
San Antonio Spurs ATS cover (1.87)
Book implied: 48.1% vs 51.9%
Total 228.5
Under (2.02)
Over (1.84)
Book implied: 47.7% vs 52.3%
MyBookie NBA Odds · Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs
Live odds from MyBookie. Use these prices to follow the same AI edges shown in today’s Smart Money Report.
Money Line
Oklahoma City Thunder
-303
Reference price (no current edge)
San Antonio Spurs (AI Pick)
+233
AI value side at MyBookie
Point Spread
Oklahoma City Thunder
-110
Line: -8 · for comparison
San Antonio Spurs (AI Pick)
-110
Line: +8 · AI sees a positive EV margin here
Total
Over 229
-110
Full game total · opposite side
Under 229 (AI Pick)
-110
Full game total · AI prefers this side at this number
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Happy Sports Betting Data
Spread · Season / Last 7
Oklahoma City
Season 18-22
Last 7 2-5
San Antonio Spurs
Season 25-14
Last 7 5-2
Totals · Season / Last 7
Oklahoma City
Season U19-O21
Last 7 U4-O3
San Antonio Spurs
Season U23-O16
Last 7 U6-O1
Spread · Home / Road · Last 5
Oklahoma City (Home)
Overall 10-12
Last 5 1-4
San Antonio Spurs (Road)
Overall 14-8
Last 5 3-2
Totals · Home / Road · Last 5
Oklahoma City (Home)
Overall U11-O11
Last 5 U2-O3
San Antonio Spurs (Road)
Overall U13-O9
Last 5 U5-O5
Odds from Pinnacle Sports. Probabilities are generated by the Happy Sports AI model using team form and efficiency metrics.
Pinnacle NBA Odds · Oklahoma City vs San Antonio Spurs
For European & Asian residents only. Live odds directly from Pinnacle.
Powered by HappySports AI
Moneyline · AI edge
San Antonio Spurs (AI Pick)
Reference price vs market
3.24
Flagged as value at Pinnacle
Spread · AI edge
San Antonio Spurs +8
Line vs AI fair spread
1.87
AI prefers this side at this number
Total · AI edge
Under 228.5
Total vs AI projected points
2.02
Positive EV based on our model
Use Pinnacle odds that our NBA model is calibrated on for moneyline, spread and totals.
P
Bet these odds at Pinnacle
Available to eligible European & Asian residents. Please bet responsibly.
Happy Sports AI - Match Prediction Report
This is a textbook “market loves OKC, model loves Spurs + Under” spot at Pinnacle.
Matchup & Form Overview
- Oklahoma City is 33–7 (19–3 home), league-best record, but only 18–22 ATS on the season and 2–5 ATS over the last 7 – winning games but not justifying big spreads.
- San Antonio is 27–12 (14–8 road) with a 25–14 ATS mark and 5–2 ATS in the last 7, consistently outperforming market expectations, especially as an underdog.
- Recent head-to-head has been Spurs-dominant this season (multiple straight wins and covers vs OKC), underlining a real matchup issue for the Thunder beyond pure standings.
Line Comparison (Happy AI vs Pinnacle)
- Pinnacle pricing: OKC 118.3 vs SAS 110.3 with total 228.5, implying a comfortable home win and fairly high-scoring tempo.
- Happy Sports AI: OKC 106.5 vs SAS 107.1 with total 213.6 – not only 14.9 points lower on the total but actually making Spurs a slight scoring favorite on a neutral projection.
- Moneyline: Book has OKC 70.2% vs Spurs 29.8%, but AI flips it to Spurs 51.2% vs OKC 48.8%, a massive 21% swing – one of the strongest contrarian positions on the slate.
Spread & Total Angles
- Spread -8.0:
- Book implied cover: ~48.1% OKC vs 51.9% SAS.
- Happy AI: 35.0% OKC vs 65.0% SAS – a 13%+ edge to San Antonio +8 and clear fade of OKC laying big points.
- Total 228.5:
- Pinnacle leans Over, but AI gives 81.0% to the Under vs 19.0% Over with a model total at 213.6, marking it as one of the most mispriced totals of the day.
- Combined, this is a premier dog + Under environment: model expects a tight, lower-scoring game, not an OKC blowout shootout.
Recent Performance & Situational Data
- ATS last 7: OKC 2–5 vs SAS 5–2; Spurs are in form, Thunder are not covering numbers like this despite winning outright.
- Season ATS: OKC 18–22, SAS 25–14 – Spurs have been a bet-on team, Thunder more of a fade at inflated spreads.
- Home/Road last 5: OKC home 1–4 ATS, SAS road 3–2 ATS; again favoring Spurs in this price range.
- Totals: SAS is U6–O1 in last 7 and U-heavy in recent road games, matching the AI’s view of a suppressed total relative to the 228.5 line.
Betting Takeaways (Pinnacle Version)
- Side: San Antonio Spurs +8 is a top-tier value pick, with AI showing them as the more likely winner straight-up and strongly favoring them against the spread.
- Total: Under 228.5 is a high-confidence total, supported by a nearly 15-point model gap, strong Under trends, and Spurs’ defensive/tempo profile.
- Correlated angle: The model script is Spurs hanging around or even winning outright in a controlled, lower-possession game – the ideal setup for pairing Spurs +8 with Under 228.5 rather than chasing OKC favorites or overs.
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