Phoenix Suns vs New York Knicks AI Prediction (Jan 9) | HappySports AI
Our NBA AI model breaks down Phoenix Suns vs New York Knicks with projected lines, win probabilities, and today’s best bets.
🎯Alert!!!
“Early sharp activity is triggering a reverse-line signal flag in this match up!!
MyBookie NBA Odds · Phoenix Suns vs New York Knicks
Odds from Pinnacle Sports. Probabilities are generated by the Happy Sports AI model using team form and efficiency metrics.
Happy Sports AI - Match Prediction Report
January 10, 2026 | 11:00 AM KST | Mortgage Match Center, Phoenix
📊 PINNACLE ODDS BREAKDOWN
Match Information
- Home: Phoenix Suns (22-15, Home: 12-5)
- Away: New York Knicks (24-13, Away: 8-9)
- Date: January 9-10, 2026
- Venue: Mortgage Match Center (Phoenix Home Court)
💰 PINNACLE BETTING LINES
Money Line
| Team | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Phoenix Suns | 2.05 | 47.30% |
| New York Knicks | 1.84 | 52.70% |
Point Spread
| Team | Line | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Phoenix +1.5 | +1.5 | 1.98 |
| New York -1.5 | -1.5 | 1.909 |
Total Points (Over/Under)
| Line | Odds |
|---|---|
| Under 230.5 | 1.917 |
| Over 230.5 | 1.934 |
🎯 AI PREDICTION vs PINNACLE
| Metric | AI Prediction | Pinnacle Line | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHO Score | 116.42 | 114.5 (implied) | +1.92 |
| NY Score | 105.34 | 116.0 (implied) | -10.66 |
| Total | 222.47 | 230.5 | -8.03 |
Key Discrepancy
- AI predicts: PHO wins by 11.08 points
- Pinnacle line: NY favored by 1.5 points
- Gap: 12.58 points difference
🔍 PROBABILITY ANALYSIS
Money Line - Book vs AI
| Source | PHO Win % | NY Win % | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 47.30% | 52.70% | NY +5.40% |
| AI Model | 68.36% | 31.64% | PHO +36.72% |
| Edge | +21.06% | -21.06% | PHO +21.06% ✅ |
Handicap Analysis
| Source | PHO +1.5% | NY -1.5% |
|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 49.09% | 50.91% |
| AI Model | 70.63% | 29.37% |
| Edge | +21.54% ✅ | -21.54% |
Total Analysis
| Source | Under % | Over % |
|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 50.22% | 49.78% |
| AI Model | 68.25% | 31.75% |
| Edge | +18.03% ✅ | -18.03% |
🚨 CRITICAL FACTORS
1. Phoenix Home Dominance
- Home Record: 12-5 (70.6% win rate)
- Last 5 Home Games: 4-1 (80%)
- Home Court Advantage: Strong statistical edge
2. Injury Report
Phoenix Suns:
- OUT: Josh Green (Long-term, returns within week)
- OUT: J.Bouyea (7.6 PPG, 2.1 RPG) - Limited impact
New York Knicks:
- OUT: L.Shamet (Season-long)
- OUT: Josh Hart (Season-long)
- Core players available
3. Recent Form
Phoenix: 3-2 last 5 games
- Previous game: W vs LAC (ended 3-game losing streak)
- Strong bounce-back momentum
New York: Road struggles (8-9 away record)
4. Under Trend
Phoenix Season Stats:
- Under: 22 games (59.5%)
- Over: 15 games (40.5%)
- Last 7 Games: 5 Unders, 2 Overs (71.4% Under)
- Clear Under team ✅
💎 VALUE BETS (Pinnacle)
🥇 PRIMARY BET: Under 230.5 @ 1.917 ⭐⭐⭐
Value Analysis:
- AI Prediction: 222.47 total points
- Pinnacle Line: 230.5
- Value Edge: -8.03 points ✅
Betting Rationale:
- ✅ AI predicts 8.03 points under the line
- ✅ Phoenix strong Under trend (59.5% season)
- ✅ Recent 7 games: 71.4% Under (5 of 7)
- ✅ Last 5 home games: 60% Under (3 of 5)
- ✅ AI probability: 68.25% vs Market: 50.22%
- ✅ 18.03% probability edge ✨
Risk Factors:
- Both teams capable of high-scoring games
- NY may push tempo on road
Recommended Stake: 3 units (Highest Confidence)
🥈 SECONDARY BET: Phoenix Suns ML @ 2.05 ⭐⭐
Value Analysis:
- AI Fair Odds: 1.47 (68.36%)
- Pinnacle Odds: 2.05 (47.30%)
- Value Edge: +21.06% ✅
Betting Rationale:
- ✅ AI gives PHO 68.4% win probability vs market's 47.3%
- ✅ 21.06% probability edge = massive value
- ✅ Home court strength (70.6% home win rate)
- ✅ Recent home form: 4-1 last 5 games
- ✅ NY road struggles (8-9 away record)
- ✅ Momentum: Just beat LAC to end 3-game skid
Risk Factors:
- NY is strong team (24-13 overall)
- Close matchup on paper
- Injuries minimal impact
Recommended Stake: 2 units (Medium-High Confidence)
🥉 TERTIARY BET: Phoenix +1.5 @ 1.98 ⭐⭐
Value Analysis:
- AI projects PHO wins by 11.08 points
- Getting +1.5 points = 12.58-point buffer
- AI probability: 70.63% vs Pinnacle: 49.09%
- Value Edge: +21.54% ✅
Betting Rationale:
- ✅ Even if PHO loses, covers spread easily
- ✅ AI predicts outright PHO victory
- ✅ Safety margin of 12.58 points
- ✅ Excellent hedge position
Recommended Stake: 2 units (Medium Confidence)
❌ AVOID BETS
New York ML @ 1.84
- NO VALUE: AI gives only 31.64% win probability
- Market overvaluing NY road strength
New York -1.5 @ 1.909
- NEGATIVE VALUE: AI predicts PHO wins by 11
- Contradicts model projection entirely
Over 230.5 @ 1.934
- NEGATIVE VALUE: AI predicts 222.47 points
- Phoenix strong Under trend conflicts with bet
🎲 RECOMMENDED BETTING STRATEGY
Portfolio Allocation (7 units total)
- Under 230.5 @ 1.917 → 3.0 units (42.9%)
- PHO ML @ 2.05 → 2.0 units (28.6%)
- PHO +1.5 @ 1.98 → 2.0 units (28.6%)
Expected Value Calculation
- Under 230.5: 3.0 units × 1.917 × 68.25% = +3.93 units EV
- PHO ML: 2.0 units × 2.05 × 68.36% = +2.80 units EV
- PHO +1.5: 2.0 units × 1.98 × 70.63% = +2.80 units EV
- Total EV: +9.53 units (136.1% ROI)
🏆 FINAL VERDICT
Game Prediction: Phoenix Suns 116, New York Knicks 105
Key Thesis: The market has severely underestimated Phoenix's home court advantage and overvalued New York's road performance. Phoenix holds a 70.6% home win rate and just defeated the Clippers to snap a 3-game losing streak.
The 21.06% probability edge on Phoenix ML represents exceptional value, especially at 2.05 odds from Pinnacle (vs 1.95 at Betman).
Additionally, Phoenix's season-long Under trend (59.5%) combined with AI predicting 222.47 total points creates an 18.03% edge on Under 230.5.
With AI projecting an 11.08-point Phoenix victory while the market gives NY a 1.5-point advantage, this creates a multi-angle arbitrage opportunity across ML, spread, and totals.
Betting Summary:
- Best Value: Under 230.5 @ 1.917 (3 units)
- High Value: PHO ML @ 2.05 (2 units)
- Safety Hedge: PHO +1.5 @ 1.98 (2 units)
- Total Investment: 7 units
- Expected Return: 9.53 units (+36.1% profit)
🔎 Powered by Happy Sports AI
AI-driven basketball predictions and win probabilities for NBA & KBL games.
We compare bookmaker odds with our own AI lines to find value on moneyline, spread, and totals.
📩 Want more? Subscribe to Happy Sports AI for daily win-probability reports and weekly insights
Recommended Sportsbooks for U.S. Bettors
#NBABetting #PhoenixSuns #NewYorkKnicks #PinnacleSports #ValueBetting #SportsAnalytics #UnderBetting #HomeCourtAdvantage #SharpBetting #NBAPredictions #PhoenixHome #KnicksAway #UnderTrend #BasketballAnalytics #DataDrivenBetting
Comments ()